Morgan Stanley
India | Tuesday, 7 October 2008
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Clinton in Ohio, Texas: End of the road?

By John Whitesides
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Posted 04 March 2008 @ 07:12 am GMT

Hillary Clinton, the prohibitive favorite in the Democratic presidential race just months ago, faces the possible end of her White House road on Tuesday in Ohio and Texas.

US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) stands on stage before speaking to supporters during a campaign stop at the University of Toledo in Toledo, Ohio March 3, 2008
US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) stands on stage before speaking to supporters during a campaign stop at the University of Toledo in Toledo, Ohio March 3, 2008. (Photo: Reuters)

The New York senator battled on Monday to save her campaign with victories in the two showdowns, which would halt rival Barack Obama's streak of 11 consecutive wins in their hard-fought duel to be the Democratic nominee in November's presidential election.

Voting ends in Ohio at 7:30 p.m. EST (0030 GMT on Wednesday) and all voting in Texas will be over by 9 p.m. EST (0200 GMT on Wednesday).

Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton, has said she needs to win both states to continue her campaign, a view shared by many analysts. Polls show tight races in both.

Even a split decision in the two states would leave her with a steep climb to overtake Obama's lead of roughly 150 pledged convention delegates who select the nominee, and increase the pressure on her to quit.

"There will be people in her campaign who will argue a split decision is good enough to continue," said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. "But as a practical matter, just looking at the delegates, the numbers won't really add up for her."

Obama endorsed the idea Clinton needs wins in both states, which have a combined 334 delegates at stake, to prolong the Democratic race.

"If we do well in Texas and Ohio, I think the math is such where it's going to be hard for her to win the nomination. And they'll have to make a decision about how much longer they want to pursue it," the Illinois senator said in an ABC interview shown on "Good Morning America."

Republican front-runner John McCain, an Arizona senator, also can come close to clinching the nomination on Tuesday with expected wins over his last remaining major challenger, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

'GUARDEDLY CONFIDENT'

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