Chavez defeat seen as wake-up call for Cuba

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Chavez has kept the Cuban economy afloat with vital shipments of 92,000 barrels of oil per day, an estimated bill of $3 billion a year that cash-strapped Cuba pays for with medical and other services.

The man he calls his ideological father, ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro, congratulated Chavez on his "dignified" concession speech in a note published in Cuba on Tuesday, two days after Venezuelans rejected Chavez's effort to run indefinitely for president.

But Castro, who has not appeared in public for 16 months, repeated his concerns about Chavez's future and safety, warning the Venezuelan leader that he is exposing himself to an assassin's bullet by riding too often in open vehicles.

Experts on Cuba said the referendum upset is further notice to Cuba's leaders that they must look for alternative sources of support because the Venezuelan lifeline is not eternal.

"The Cubans have always feared that one day - and rather suddenly - Chavez might disappear," said Frank Mora, a professor at the National War College in Washington. "They have done everything possible to find alternative sources of oil."

Venezuela held out a hand to Cuba in the direst time of its post-Soviet crisis, and trade between the two allies has grown to $7 billion a year, Castro noted.

Cuban officials declined to comment on the significance for their country of a defeat that curbed Chavez's plans to speed up his socialist revolution in Venezuela.

"Chavez will continue as president until 2013, so we have time to think about this," Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque told reporters on Monday.

Cuba's dependence on Chavez became evident during a failed coup that almost toppled Chavez in 2002 when his opponents immediately announced an end to oil supplies to Cuba before they had secured their hold on power.

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